Thursday, 23 November 2017

Men at work

The first lot of workers are the fencing contractors doing their stuff with our fences.  They are from Patterson's Rural Contracting and are a great bunch of guys.

They are making great use of this JCB.
 Frances reckons that if she wins Tatts she'd not want a Roller, but one of these.  As they seem to go for $60k or thereabouts (its very hard to get prices on such stuff on line) she could probably have 2 - keeping 1 for Sundays!

When I was studying agriculture I visited the Essex (UK) office of Strutt and Parker (a land management company) and was most impressed that the guy I spoke to had his Labrador sitting under his desk.  My sort of job.  These two spend most of their time sitting in the utes!  I was astonished that they stayed in there despite Tammy being with us.  Very good dogs.
The next workers are the blokes doing ther road works on Captains Flat Rd,  Today they started applying the bitumen to the last bit.  Wooo hooo1

I reckon they were very lucky that this thunderstorm ...
 .. disappeared before it got to us.

Monday, 20 November 2017

The Gazette (area) industry

Having looked at the number of workers in the Gazette area and how/where they go to to work this post looks at the outcome of their labours.  That means the nature of the goods and services delivered by their employers.

The ABS classification of industries has 19 entries at the top level.  Several of these have very low numbers of employees in the Gazette area and it is very difficult to fit, in a legible way, such a large group of entries in a blog-chart.  In addition the confidentiality algorithm of the ABS makes small numbers unreliable (as might the impact of non-response and imprecise reporting by punters).  So I have combined the groups in a hopefully logical way to give a set of 11 slightly broader groups. I have also adopted relatively brief names for the groups to present the charts in a sensible way.

I may do a later post looking at the major components of the more significant groups if that looks interesting

My first analysis is the number of persons classified to each industry group.  (Note that very few of these industries are located in the Gazette area - this post is about the classification of the people in the area.)
It is no surprise that the biggest number of people work in the Public Administration and Security industry.  Given the importance of the Construction industry to the economies of Queanbeyan and the ACT it is probably no surprise that this is the second biggest industry.

It is difficult to talk about the small industry groups since I have deliberately merged some groups for the reasons given above.  However it is noticeable that there are few people in the Accommodation industry and Primary Industries.   This led me to wonder about how the industrial profile of the Gazette area compared with the more urban component of QPRC (the State Suburbs of Greenleigh, Karabar, Jerrabomberra and three components of Queanbeyan).
It isn't surprising that the Gazette area has a higher proportion of people in Primary Industries (effectively, Agriculture) than Queanbeyan.  However it was surprising to find a higher proportion of people in the Construction industry in the Gazette area: certainly trade skills are very useful out here (wish I had some).  The proportion of people in most of the Service industries are very similar although Queanbeyan has more people in the Wholesale/Retail, Accommodation etc and Transport etc industries.   I was surprised that Queanbeyan had an even higher of people in Public Administration than the Gazette area.

My next forays were to cross classify the Industry Group information by various other attributes.  I began by looking at the number of women per 100 men in each industry.  (This is the inverse of the traditional sex ratio which looks at proportion of men: I thought that a big number of females was a more positive approach.)  I have sorted the results from highest to lowest in this chart.

The order of industry groups isn't a great surprise, although the extent to which the ratios for Health and Education exceed 100% is a little startling.  Again, the low ratio industries are not a great surprise.

To create an age profile I gave each 10 year age group a score equal to the middle of the age range and calculated the average age.  In doing this I was thinking about media stories about aging of farmers.
The most interesting item here is the relatively low age for the Accommodation and Food Services Industry.  This is probably explained by 80% of the people working in this industry being in the Food Services sub-group - the type of jobs that suit young people wanting part time work due to study commitments- and 80% of the employees working part time.  The notably 'old' Industry Group is Transport and Media.  Several of the people in this industry group are concealed by the confidentiality processes but cross-classifying by age shows no-one in the group younger than 30 and the modal age group 50-59.  This seems to be just coincidence - I can't think of a reason why this is so.

I followed a similar process to create an income profile by Industry Group

The two lowest income Industry Groups both have a high proportion of part-time jobs, while the highest income group has over 80% of people in full time work (and with most employees of older age groups would expect the to be earning more).

My final look at Industry is to classify Industry by 4 levels of Educational Qualification.  I will confess that the education system has many aspects I don't understand (eg interpretation of various descriptions of diplomas etc).  However I think the 4 groups I have developed below for highest level attained are reasonable coherent.
I suspect that the high proportion of people with Years 10-12 as their highest level in the Accommodation and Commerce industries is - yet again - an effect of many of the people in this group being young and still studying.  The possession of Diplomas etc fits well with Industries reliant on trade skills while degrees areimportant for the professional groups.

Sunday, 19 November 2017

Descendants of Dinosaurs

A few photos that I think are good to look at!

The Frogmouth chicks are getting close to leaving the nest.  Judging by the amount of noise coming from our dam, they will have been getting plenty of food delivered to them.

 Obviously the chicks are very aware of their surroundings, giving me the eye as I photograph them.  There are some details of later in the day below this next photograph.

I'm not sure if this Gippsland Water Dragon was looking at me or not as I photographed from the car parked on our Creek crossing.
Getting back to the Frogmouths.  On checking my records it seems that on average timing the chicks will leave the nest tomorrow night, 20 November.  So I also consulted my records of last years flight process and it seemed that activity started between 1945 and 200 Hrs, so tonight, 19 November, I watched them from 1945 onwards.

The male adult left the nest at 2002.  This caused the chicks to wander about the nest but not do any wing flapping.  At 2008 the female flew into the tree perching a few metres away from the nest.  The chicks immediately started bobbing up and down and stretching their wings.  At 2010 the male returned and fed at least one of the chicks: he flew off again after about a minute and the female left at 2012.  That stirred the chicks up: much hopping around and flapping wings.  They didn't seem to get much lift, so I think they need another day - at least.  By 2020 it was too dark to see anything.

The next morning - 20 November - at 0530 the nest was occupied by the male and both chicks.  There was much movement in the nest at various times during the day.  I resumed fledge-watch at 20:00.  The chicks were both boisterous but Dad didn't leave until 20:09.  The chicks then hopped around the nest and surrounds with much wing flapping.  About 20;15 Dad returned and fed a chick. and Mum delivered a serve a couple of minutes later.  By 20:25 I could see nothing, but both chicks were still in the nest.

When I checked the nest at 0520 on 21 November it appeared to be empty.  However 10 minutes later, in much better light at least one adult was present, and a little later one chick was evident.  Finally both chicks were spotted about 0830.  Mum was elsewhere.  In this first photo I am amused by the posture of the most visible chick.
 This one shows how the chicks are not really in the nest!
Later in the day they had gone walkabout even more!
 Down at ground level a Blotched Blue-tongued Lizard paid us a visit
 Perhaps that should be Blotched Pink and Blue-tongued Lizard
In the evening dad flew off at 2006.  Then at 2009 one of the chicks took wing and flew to the other side of the nest tree (perhaps 10m) where Dad was perching.  It stayed there for about 10 minutes then took off while I was looking at the other chick.  That got fed by Mum about 2018 but was still in the nest when it got too dark to see anything at 2025.

On the morning of 22 November the nest was empty.  The following is from an email I posted to the COG Chatline:
They were very late starting to build the nest this year (6 September vs a modal date of 21 August) but caught up a bit with quick nest building (14 days vs an average of 16.5 days).  Since then processes have been pretty much on average.   Incubation was 28 days as it has been for 5 of the 8 years for which I have records (1 years of 27 days and 2 of 29 days) and the chicks were in the nest for 35 days rather than an average of 34 days (excluding last year which was a very long 41 days - I think a reflection of a very wet Winter). 
The family have set up for the day in a tree about 30m from the nest.  Dad and the chicks are snuggled, with Mum on a different branch.

Needless to say this was right over th track where the fencing contractors were going back and forth all day in their ute.  Sorry Froggies, toughen up - its a hard world out here.

The next day the male and chicks weren't where they had been.  However, a little searching turned them up in an area I've never seen them use before, about 20m further from the nest.  They seemed quite relaxed there, even though it was one of the lower roosts I have seen them use.

Saturday, 18 November 2017

Weird weather

Yesterday afternoon we got quite a bit of rain..  It totaled to 15mm (both weather station and plastic rain gauge).  When it started about 15:00 the BoM radar showed us as having our very own little storm cell.
 By 16:40 there were massive thunderstorms all the way up the ranges (the + symbols are liughtning strikes).
 The Creek had flooded and our drive was getting hammered as the key drain had been blocked temporarily by some works, and I am not in shape to dig them out.
 Anyway that all happened.  While we scored 15mm a couple of neighbours (perhaps 2km SE) whose places overlook the Plain both reported 40mm and another 6km North scored 5mm).

Moving on to Saturday 18th and the radars were not clear on what we were likely to get.  Would the rain head straight South or keep to the west?

 By about 11;00 it seemed likely it was going to bracket us.

By noon we had 0.8mm!

Friday, 17 November 2017

How d'ya get there?

As well as details of whether people work or not the Census collects details of where people work and how they travel to work.  This is mainly used by planners etc in the big cities to work out public transport schedules and some aspects of road planning.

Before getting to the local results I was always interested in the relationship between size of a City and use of cars for the commute.
The actual data available from the ABS is amazingly detailed with some 230 combinations of modes available.  There are of course some 'special'modes such as ferries in Sydney (0.36% of commutes) and trams in Melbourne (2.71%) and Adelaide (0.53%).

There are no ferries on the Molonglo and trams , trains and even buses are few on Captains Flat Road.  So the commute in this area is dominated by the car.
I assume that most of those who walked to work were folk employed on properties, as would be some of those who worked at home.  (In view of the rural nature of the area I'm a little disappointed that there isn't an entry for "tractor" or "horse"!)

The Census data also includes information about where people travel to work.  As the information is mainly used by planners with access to heavy-duty computing systems the variable concerned is only available at quite a detailed level which generated a table with 687 entries including 134 regions - mainly suburbs - in the ACT and 553 special regions for NSW.  Only 44 of these were work destinations for people in the Gazette area.  I recoded them to ad-hoc areas as shown in the following chart.
I've shown these as red X's on a map, with the size of the X roughly equivalent to the number of travellers.
The entry for the Queanbeyan zone covers several detailed entries.

I have been unable to find a definition of the 'Queanbeyan Region' but assume the major components of the area include:
  • People who work at home;
  • Workplaces in Bungendore;
  • HQJOC (although very few people in this destination are employed in the Public Administration and Security Industry)
  • Work on rural properties in the QPRC area.
There is a separate entry in the table for Braidwood but no-one from the Gazette area confessed to working there!

Wednesday, 15 November 2017

High level work

This is the first part of my examination of 2016 Census data on employment for the catchment area of the Stoney Creek Gazette (which to save typing I will call the Gazette area).  There are quite a few posts on this blog already on the Census, so look at the tag Census in the list to the right.

Participation in the Labour force

The broadest topic about work covered in the Census is whether someone is in the Labour Force or not.  This question is, by international convention, limited to people aged 15 years or more: those under that age comprise the 'not applicable' category.  'Not stated' is largely self-explanatory although it could be noted it includes situations where person details were imputed due to a form not being received for an apparently occupied house.  The people in the Labour Force are subdivided into 5 categories and those respondents aged 15+ who aren't in one of those are Not in the Labour Force.
 The Gazette area had a higher proportion of people in full-time work (35 hours or more per week) than Australia but a lower proportion of part time workers.  Overall, 51% of people in the Gazette area were employed compared to 46% for Australia as a whole.  There were lower proportions of people looking for work (ie unemployed): 1.7% for the Gazette area vs 3.4% for Australia) and Not In the Labour Force.

The main item covered in the media is the proportion of people in the Labour Force in each of the components thereof.
With the lower total number of people in scope to the chart the length of the bars in this chart are longer.  97% of the Gazette area Labour Force are employed compared with 93% for Australia.

Labour Force x Sex

A very basic extension is to look at the topic classified  by sex.

The Gazette area has a slightly higher rate of employment for males than females. That also applies, with a higher differential, for Australia.  The biggest difference between the Gazette area and Australia is the proportion of in-scope females who are not in the Labour Force in Australia.  Our females are workers!

I was also struck by the contrasts with respect to Part Time Work between:
  1. the Gazette area and Australia; and
  2. males and females
This is summarised in the following chart which shows part time as a proportion of the total (part time + full time + away from work) for each of the 4 categories.
For both males and females Part Time work is far less a factor in the Gazette area than for Australia as a whole.  At both levels of geography females are far more involved in Part Time work than males.  The most surprising feature was that for Australia as a whole more than 50% of the women looking for work wanted a part-time job.  Presumably child care responsibilities were/are a major driver of this.

Labour Force and Income

Without wishing to get too philosophical a major reason for working is receiving a pay packet (OK, a pay electronic transfer there days).  An aside: when I started work the packet contained cash money!

Hopefully this chart shows the relationship between Income and Labour Force status for the Gazette area.
The number of employed people in each income category (I have only shown the upper limit of each income class) rises quite steadily to the $k104 - $k156 category.  While I was initially surprised at the high number of people in that class it is where one might expect to find Executive Level staff from the public service.  Many of the people in the income group work in the public service, and given the age profile of people in the area it is quite reasonable to find them at that level.

There are very few unemployed people in the area and most of them are in the lower income classes.  A small number are in the highest brackets, which could easily be explained by people who "took a package" in 2016 but are still keen to keep working.

I was intrigued by the relatively high incomes of quite a few people Not In the Labour Force (NILF).  While the Census doesn't collect information on source of income I thought age might explain this distribution.  To get something that can easily be shown I collapsed the income data to 4 classes (roughly speaking they could be thought of as Low Income, Modest Income, Comfortable Income and Well-off) and cross classified it by 10 year age groups for NILF people.
The category with less than $26k personal income is bimodal, comprising two groups:
  • a group of mainly young people with zero income; and
  • a group peaking in their 7th decade possibly welfare/pension recipients.
The groups with $27k to $91k are mainly distributed in the 50 to 80 age groups and most likely comprise people who have retired with superannuation entitlements.  The highest income group (>$91k ) are 50-70 years of age and I suspect are those with generous superannuation entitlements and/or recipients of packages from the public service (but who are not looking for work).  

Tuesday, 14 November 2017

Where do Carwoola people come from?

The ABS released the final bunch of 2016 Census data to Table Builder last Friday.  This included the data items that require more effort to code including Industry; Occupation; Educational Qualifications and Usual Residence 1 and 5 years ago.

I thought I would start off my analysis of these data for Carwoola (by which I mean the catchment area of the Stoney Creek Gazette not just the State Suburb) with the topics dealing with Internal Migration.  At the simplest level these data address the question of whether a person was residing at the same address in 2016 as they were in 2015 or 2011.

It is important to note that this is all based on place of usual residence.  Thus as myself and Frances completed our Census form at Rockhampton where we were on Census night, but gave our usual address as Carwoola we are not shown as movers.

I have tried to compare 4 series in one graph - possibly a bad idea.  The categories are the 5 options which ABS provides.  For each category the top two bars relate to 2016 vs 2011 and the lower two bars to 2016 vs 2015.  The middle two bars are the Carwoola values and the outer two for Australia.  The "not applicable" category is people who weren't born at the previous time (<1 2011="" 2015="" for="" old="" p="" year="" years="">
I'll outline my findings after the chart.

  • As would be expected more people have moved over the 5 year span than the one year.
  • For both spans Carwoola has a higher proportion of people at the same address than Australia.
  • Carwoola also has a higher "Not stated" category than Australia.  Since a proportion - possibly quite high - of non-responses will be because people didn't think the question relevant due to them not moving this would accentuate the previous point.
  • The proportion of international movers is very low for Carwoola.
The next approach is to look, at a broad level, where people were located 1 and 5 years ago.
Given the previous finding it is no surprise that the vast majority of Carwoola Residents were located in NSW in both the preceding periods.  That proportion dominates the chart to make most other entries unreadable so the next chart excludes NSW and two administrative categories.
This chart emphasises the movement from the ACT (at the risk of letting a hobby horse out of the stable, it shows the rubbish of the boundary between NSW and the ACT).  It is a little surprising that no-one has moved from SA to the Carwoola area in 5 years.

This set of data is in the final release since coding the past addresses to LGA takes considerable resources.  Looking at this finer level of detail shows that:
  • Those who moved from elsewhere in Australia to Carwoola in the year prior to the census came from 7 local Government areas.  (This slightly conflicts with the State level information due to the confidentiality process concealing the LGA for the nmovers from WA.)  Since, for all the donor LGAs other than the ACT, the number of people moving is 3 -5 I expect that these represent the movement of a single household.
  • Movers over a 5 year period were located in 24 LGAs other than ACT (which 'donated' 178 people over the 5 years).  
    • Interestingly this excludes 5 of the 7 LGAs identified as donors in the one year movement.  This would seem to be explained by a mixture of the impact of the confidentiality rules and people from Carwoola being here in 2011, residing elsewhere in 2015 and returning in 2016. 
    • The LGAs providing more than a (probable) single household over the 5 year period were Snowy Monaro Regional (13 people); Upper Lachlan (11); and Goulburn Mulwaree (10).